Love the write up. Have been long uber since around $25. Uber One continues to grow which could be a key. Definitely concerned about driver classification but they’ve gotten over past hurdles. Seems drivers prefer flexibility. Uber take rate could be another separate issue.
Autonomous hopefully shrinks margins generating more cash flow. Uber still growing in other countries, story is just starting I feel!
Uber One is the quiet story—stickiness without the subsidy bleed. Driver classification risk is real but you're right, flexibility is the moat there. Drivers don't want W-2 benefits if it means algorithmic scheduling.
Take rate's the one I watch closest. They're at ~30% and the ceiling isn't infinite—too high and drivers churn, too high and riders switch to Lyft or just drive themselves. Autonomous actually helps here because it removes the driver split entirely, but that's a 2030 story, not a 2025 one.
International is where the runway is. Uber Eats in markets where DoorDash doesn't exist. Mobility in cities that are still building their middle class.
Thanks for reading—sounds like you've been in this name long enough to know the real risks versus the headline risks.
Love the write up. Have been long uber since around $25. Uber One continues to grow which could be a key. Definitely concerned about driver classification but they’ve gotten over past hurdles. Seems drivers prefer flexibility. Uber take rate could be another separate issue.
Autonomous hopefully shrinks margins generating more cash flow. Uber still growing in other countries, story is just starting I feel!
$25 entry is a great seat for this ride.
Uber One is the quiet story—stickiness without the subsidy bleed. Driver classification risk is real but you're right, flexibility is the moat there. Drivers don't want W-2 benefits if it means algorithmic scheduling.
Take rate's the one I watch closest. They're at ~30% and the ceiling isn't infinite—too high and drivers churn, too high and riders switch to Lyft or just drive themselves. Autonomous actually helps here because it removes the driver split entirely, but that's a 2030 story, not a 2025 one.
International is where the runway is. Uber Eats in markets where DoorDash doesn't exist. Mobility in cities that are still building their middle class.
Thanks for reading—sounds like you've been in this name long enough to know the real risks versus the headline risks.
Imo partnerships and fleets are gonna be really important for them. The sky is the limit when you consider those two.