Yep — that’s a real risk, and it’s the part people hand-wave away with “AI demand is infinite.”
If the **globalization tailwind flips into a tax** (tariffs, reshoring, duplication of supply chains, higher energy + labor costs, compliance, logistics friction), then **AI can still grow like crazy while margins get squeezed**. Revenue up doesn’t automatically mean profits up.
* **capex intensity** (how much you have to spend to keep up)
* **pricing power** (who can pass costs through vs. eat them)
* **ROIC/FCF conversion** (are they actually turning demand into cash?)
That’s why I keep coming back to the “toll collectors” and bottlenecks: **the winners in a margin-tax world are the ones who get paid per unit of buildout** *and* can push costs downstream.
Couldn't agree more, what if that 'globalization tax' on margins expands faster than anticiapted, even with insatiable AI demand?
Yep — that’s a real risk, and it’s the part people hand-wave away with “AI demand is infinite.”
If the **globalization tailwind flips into a tax** (tariffs, reshoring, duplication of supply chains, higher energy + labor costs, compliance, logistics friction), then **AI can still grow like crazy while margins get squeezed**. Revenue up doesn’t automatically mean profits up.
The tell won’t be the hype. It’ll be:
* **gross margin trend** (input costs + pricing power)
* **capex intensity** (how much you have to spend to keep up)
* **pricing power** (who can pass costs through vs. eat them)
* **ROIC/FCF conversion** (are they actually turning demand into cash?)
That’s why I keep coming back to the “toll collectors” and bottlenecks: **the winners in a margin-tax world are the ones who get paid per unit of buildout** *and* can push costs downstream.