SCORECARD
Last Updated: 5/4/2026
Most stop at research. Phaetrix publishes the decision, the risk rules, and what happened after.
This page logs the major calls made publicly and what the market did next.
Wins and misses are both included. The goal isn’t perfection. The goal is accountability
Phaetrix Scorecard
A running log of active coverage calls, tracking thesis status, price performance, and key notes.
All links point to full write-ups on phaetrix.substack.com.
Active Coverage
AAPL — Hold (11/12/25)
Price at Call: ~$240 | Now: ~$280 | Status: Open
Business outperformed the bearish lean.
Read the full write-up here
ABNB — Watch (03/09/26)
Price at Call: ~$126 | Now: ~$143 | Status: Open
Monetization not yet proven; AI improving cost-to-serve. Upside requires proof of higher revenue per trip or rising take rate.
Read the full write-up here
ADBE — Pass / Avoid (12/03/25)
Price at Call: ~$380–400 buy zone | Now: ~$250 | Status: Open
Strong FCF and durable moat, but growth slowing. Below buy zone; rejected due to business model concerns.
Read the full write-up here
AMD — Buy / Long (09/20/25)
Price at Call: ~$168–187 | Now: ~$360 | Status: Open
Positioned to benefit from Nvidia execution issues; margin pressure and cyclical risk remain.
Read the full write-up here
AMZN — Wait / Trim (10/02/25)
Above ~$230 | Now: ~$268 | Status: Mixed
Capex came in above expectations.
Read the full write-up here
ASML — Buy (01/28/25)
Price at Call: ~$1,065 | Now: ~$1,427 | Status: Open
Durable demand thesis holding.
Read the full write-up here
AVGO — Avoid / Wait (11/24/25)
Entry: < $340 | Now: ~$421 | Status: Open
High-quality business with strong AI exposure, but valuation assumes near-perfect execution.
Read the full write-up here
CAT — Avoid (11/10/25)
Price at Call: ~$520 | Now: ~$889 | Status: Miss / Thesis Wrong
Original call was too cautious. The cycle extended, AI/power infrastructure demand kept rerating the stock, and the market rewarded CAT’s exposure far more than expected. This should be logged as a miss, not an open avoid call.
Revisit: CAT I Called CAT Expensive at $520. I Was Wrong. — 4/20/2026
COST — Buy / Hold (09/24/25)
Buy Zone: ~$1,200–1,300 | Now: ~$1,011 | Status: Open
High-quality compounder driven by membership moat. Best bought on pullbacks.
Read the full write-up here
CRWD — Watch / Speculative Buy (01/14/26)
Buy Zone: $350–400 | Now: ~$455 | Status: Open
Strong business with high retention; valuation priced for perfection.
Read the full write-up here
DIS — Watch (12/24/25)
Buy Zone: $85–95 | Now: ~$103 | Status: Open
Cash flow has returned, but market still discounts sustainability.
Read the full write-up here
GOOGL — Hold / Pass (01/07/26)
Price at Call: ~$315 | Now: ~$385 | Status: Open
Heavy CapEx cycle and FCF pressure not fully reflected.
Read the full write-up here
HD — Watch (12/10/25)
Buy Zone: $315–330 | Now: ~$322 | Status: Open
High-quality cyclical in housing trough; entry depends on housing cycle turn.
Read the full write-up here
INTC — Avoid (12/08/25)
Price at Call: ~$43 | Now: ~$99 | Status: Open
Turnaround traction came faster than expected.
Read the full write-up here
JEPI — Conditional Buy (02/02/26)
Price at Call: ~$58 | Now: ~$56 | Status: Open
Income ETF trading upside for yield; best in choppy markets.
Read the full write-up here
JNJ — Avoid (10/06/25)
Price at Call: ~$188 | Now: ~$227 | Status: Open
Litigation and patent cliff risks create open-ended downside.
Read the full write-up here
KO — Hold / Wait (11/26/25)
Buy Zone: $65–68 | Now: ~$77 | Status: Open
Defensive dividend payer; valuation stretched.
Read the full write-up here
LLY — Hold (05/04/26)
Price at Call: ~$915 | Now: ~$965 | Status: Open
Elite obesity franchise, but valuation near 40x leaves little room for slower growth, pricing pressure, or pipeline disappointment.
Read the full write-up here
LMT — Buy (02/18/26)
Price at Call: ~$655 | Now: ~$512 | Status: Open
Durable defense demand and backlog support thesis.
Read the full write-up here
MCD — Hold / Buy (01/12/26)
Buy/Add: < $300 / < $286 | Now: ~$307 | Status: Open
Franchise tollbooth model; returns driven by price paid.
Read the full write-up here
MELI — Buy (02/09/26)
Price at Call: ~$1,958 | Now: ~$1,850 | Status: Open
Commerce + payments + credit flywheel; add if credit quality stable.
Read the full write-up here
META — Watch / Buy (12/22/25)
Buy Zone: $500–600 | Now: ~$608| Status: Open
Elite ad cash machine funding massive AI capex; entry requires pullback or proof of ROI.
Read the full write-up here
MO — Hold; Cautious Add (03/23/25)
Price at Call: ~$69 | Now: ~$74 | Status: Open
Rerated from neglected yield to priced durability; risk now in dividend growth.
Read the full write-up here
MSFT — Hold / Watch (11/19/25)
Price at Call: ~$482 | Now: ~$414 | Status: Mixed
Strong business; AI spend and multiple compression reset stock.
Read the full write-up here
NFLX — Watch (12/29/25)
Buy Zone: $75–85 | Now: ~$92 | Status: Open
Elite cash-generating streamer; buy only on fear-driven pullback.
Read the full write-up here
NVO — Risk Flagged (01/21/26)
Price at Call: ~$61 | Now: ~$43 | Status: Correct
Trial failure validated thesis; stock dropped ~16%.
Read the full write-up here
NVDA — Hold (10/09/25)
Buy Zone: ~$175–195 | Now: ~$198 | Status: Mixed
Massive earnings beat, but expectations were higher.
Read the full write-up here
ORCL — Starter (04/27/26)
Price at Call: ~$147–149 | Now: ~$178 | Status: Open
Massive AI backlog, but the stock depends on faster and more profitable backlog conversion than the market expects.
Read the full write-up here
PANW — Watch / Start Small (02/16/26)
Price at Call: ~$183–185 | Now: ~$181 | Status: Open
Strong cybersecurity platform; $28B M&A introduces integration risk.
Read the full write-up here
PEP — Hold / Wait (11/25/25)
Add: ~$135 | Now: ~$157 | Status: Open
Dividend payer with weak North America volume; needs stabilization.
Read the full write-up here
PG — Hold / Pass (01/05/26)
Buy Zone: $120–130 | Now: ~$147 | Status: Open
Dividend bond proxy; valuation leaves no margin of safety.
Read the full write-up here
PLTR — Avoid (10/14/25)
Price at Call: ~$183 | Now: ~$144 | Status: Mixed
Risk right, magnitude wrong; fundamentals improved faster than expected.
Read the full write-up here
QYLD — Avoid (02/25/26)
Price at Call: ~$17 | Now: ~$18 | Status: Correct
Yield strategy sacrifices compounding for income optics.
Read the full write-up here
RBLX — Starter (03/02/26)
Add < $60, Max 5–7% | Now: ~$45 | Status: Open
Engagement-driven platform; profitability unproven.
Read the full write-up here
SCHD — Hold / Watch (03/16/26)
Price at Call: ~$30 | Now: ~$31 | Status: Open
Income ETF with quality tilt; entry matters more than structure.
Read the full write-up here
SHOP — Watch (02/23/26)
Price at Call: ~$117 | Now: ~$127 | Status: Open
Valuation requires sustained high growth.
Read the full write-up here
SNOW — Watch / Start Small (02/11/26)
Price at Call: ~$208–210 | Now: ~$141 | Status: Open
Strong demand, but heavy SBC (~30%+ of revenue) creates dilution risk.
Read the full write-up here
SOFI — Avoid (10/27/25)
Price at Call: ~$27–28 | Now: ~$16 | Status: Mixed
Valuation correct, execution underestimated.
Read the full write-up here
Revisit: $SOFI: Record Quarter, With an Asterrisk - 4/6/2026
TSLA — Avoid (10/04/25)
Price at Call: ~$440 | Now: ~$390 | Status: Correct
Robotaxi / FSD conditions not met.
Read the full write-up here
TSLY — Avoid (10/31/25)
Price at Call: ~$42 | Now: ~$29 | Status: Correct
Synthetic covered-call structure erodes NAV and caps upside.
Read the full write-up here
TSM — Buy (01/26/26)
Price at Call: ~$322 | Now: ~$397 | Status: Open
Durable demand thesis holding.
Read the full write-up here
UBER — Buy (12/01/25)
Price at Call: ~$85 | Now: ~$75 | Status: Open
Strong FCF (~$9B) and asset-light model; labor law remains binary risk.
Read the full write-up here
VZ — Pass (12/31/25)
Buy Zone: $35–38 | Now: ~$48 | Status: Open
Telecom equity behaving like levered bond; better risk/reward in credit.
Read the full write-up here
WM - Starter (4/3/26)
Price at Call: ~$235 | Now: ~$226 | Status: Open
Great defensive business, but valuation near 29x leaves limited room for anything less than flawless execution.
Read the full write-up here
WMT — Watch (12/18/25)
Buy Zone: $102–108 | Now: ~$131 | Status: Open
High-quality compounder; valuation (~42x) limits upside.
Read the full write-up here
XOM — Hold / Watch (01/19/26)
Price at Call: ~$128 | Now: ~$152 | Status: Open
High-quality cash-return operator; upside capped without oil cycle tailwind.
Read the full write-up here
Upcoming Coverage
VISA — 05/25/26
JPM - 6/1/26
FTNT - 6/8/26
ETN - 6/15/26
NU - 6/22/26
ZS - 6/29/26
End of Scorecard — Updated May 4, 2026